| WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)
-- Issues on people's minds: In
the face of a housing bubble,
what's the best way to proceed
when you're considering buying
property and in fast-growing
Florida are there any places
where things are actually slow?
Q. What is
your opinion about purchasing a
condo in San Diego where there
is a possible housing bubble?
Would you advise buying now
versus waiting a year when
interest rates are higher? Would
you buy using an interest-only
loan with 10% down, or 80-10-10
loan, or 20% down with a 30-year
fixed loan? Carrie Harris.
Answer: Wow. That's a lot of
questions packed into such a
short e-mail. But your queries
are topical and on the minds of
many readers. For example, Anand
in San Francisco is thinking
about selling his condo and
buying a house. But he wonders
if he should sell now and wait a
couple of years until house
prices fall to a more reasonable
level.
Interestingly, both your
market and his are on the PMI
Group's list of the five most
likely places where prices will
depreciate over the next 24
months. That doesn't mean they
will fall back to where they
were when the run up started.
Rather, it means they will
recede from their record highs
to a more rational range.
Remember, housing prices
don't tank like stock prices. If
there is a bubble, it will leak
air but it won't pop. And
housing prices may not even fall
at all. They could remain
stagnant until market
fundamentals catch up.
That said, let me add that
the experts don't agree on
whether or not there is a
bubble. For every one that says
the sky will soon be falling,
there is another who says
there's no end in sight to the
housing gravy train; that
mortgage payments as a
percentage of income remain
relatively low.
But most economists do
suggest that the markets least
likely to implode are those with
solid foundations. The main
statistic to follow is
employment growth. In the most
simplistic terms possible, jobs
are filled by people who need
somewhere to live.
Other good tell-tale signs
are income growth and some kind
of artificial constraint on the
production of new houses, i.e.,
the lack of land or a
politically imposed building
moratorium. Also pay attention
to the inventory of homes on the
market. If inventories grow,
that means houses aren't selling
as fast as they have been. And
when sellers don't sell as
quickly as they had anticipated
and have to buck some
competition, they become spooked
and start cutting their asking
prices.
Don't follow the national
numbers, though. If there is a
bubble and it does spring a
leak, it will be on a local or
regional basis rather than
nationwide. So follow the
economic trends in your own
backyard. What is the
vulnerability of industries in
your area to reversals in the
economy, for example? Can they
keep growing in spite of a lull?
Another red flag is the
nature of financing in your
market. Right now, interest-only
loans and pay-option adjustables
are the darlings of the lending
industry. Why? Because lenders
make money on fees. And since
they don't get paid until the
sale closes -- neither do realty
agents, by the way -- they have
an incentive to make the deal
happen whether or not their
borrowers are put into a
precarious financial situation.
The danger, of course, is if
people are in over their heads,
they could be forced to sell
their houses if the economy
sours. If too many people are in
over their heads, the market
could be flooded by folks
looking to get out from under
their housing albatross.
Ditto for investors. The
investor market is the shakiest
side of the housing sector. They
are in the game for the short
haul, and as soon as they think
the market is turning, they will
dump their properties.
Concerning your questions
regarding financing, unless you
are going to put your monthly
savings to good use in an
investment that offers a better
return than your house, stay
away from interest-only loans.
As for the other choices, do the
math: Make a side-by-side
comparison to determine which
one is the best, not just for
the immediate payback but over
the long term.
Q. In
previous columns, you have said
that Florida is among the
fastest growing states in the
Union. But I have a different
question. Do you know which are
the slowest growing counties in
the state? Mitchell Starrett
A: Many of Florida's 67
counties are growing like mad,
but two -- Gulf and Monroe --
actually had negative growth
between 2000 and 2004. Gulf's
population fell by 5.1% and
Monroe's dipped by 1.6%,
according to the Census Bureau.
Of course, everything is
relative. In terms of actual
numbers, the two jurisdictions
lost only 744 and 1,305
citizens, respectively.
The other 65 counties
experienced an influx of
residents in the 2000-04 period,
according to the Census Bureau.
But many didn't grow by much.
The slowest growers were:
Taylor, 0.2%; Pinellas, 0.8%;
Calhoun, 1.3%; Escambia, 1.5%;
Leon, 1.8%, and Madison, 1.9%.
Pinellas is where St.
Petersburg is located, and I
suspect that it's a slow grower
because the area is pretty much
built-out. I'm not a Floridian,
so I don't know where the others
are located. But if any of them
are landlocked, that's probably
a big factor in the lack of
growth. After all, beaches are a
very big attraction in the
Sunshine State.
By the way, this data came
directly from www.census.gov, an
extremely user-friendly site
that anyone can peruse.
Visit the site. |